Topic > Small-scale experiments and large-scale predictions

Introduction: Understanding the world's climate, how it has changed and how it will change is a rather difficult task; an extremely controversial task. Scientists conducted numerous small-scale experiments and extrapolated the data to predict future climate and emissions trends. This article will show how extrapolating dating from small-scale experiments is not always accurate and has a large margin of error. The article will discuss the various methods used by environmental scientists in attempting to extrapolate data from small-scale experiments. With particular emphasis on how the methods used are unable to take into account the many variables that would need to be taken into account to bring about large-scale change. Air Pollution: In a small-scale experiment by Nath and Patil (2006) they used an in situ real-time mixing height model analysis. Mixing Height (MH) is the dispersion depth of the atmospheric boundary layer, a crucial input parameter in air pollution models (Nath et al., 2006). This model is able to obtain specific data from nearby weather stations twice a day and extrapolate the data to obtain an estimate of the MH. However, the obtained extrapolated values ​​can cause significant errors in pollution prediction due to the fact that MH is time- and site-dependent. Nath and Patil argue that the use of the real-time in situ mixing height model could estimate the in-situ real-time values ​​of the MH from readily available surface measurements of temperature and wind. This data is then combined with a readily available air pollution forecast model to predict current pollution in the specified area. This model is meant to be used for remote locations where the development is new and there is not a single piece of paper that can be replicated. Otherwise making large-scale predictions from small-scale experiments can be extremely imperfect. Works Cited Drake, BG, Peresta, GJ (1993) Open-air chambers for studies of the long-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on wetland and forest ecosystem processes. Plant and Soil, 187:111–118, Moutinho-Pereira, J.M., Bacelar, E.A., Goncalves, B., Ferreira, H.F., Coutinho, J.F., Correia, C.M. (2009). Effects of open-air chambers on the physiological and yield characteristics of vines grown in open fields. Acta Physiol Plant, 32:395–403Nath, S., Patil, R.S. (2006). Air pollution concentration prediction using a real-time in situ mixing height model. Atmospheric Environment, 40:3816–3822Sanders, GE, Clark AG, Colls, JJ (1991) The influence of open chambers on the growth and development of field beans. New phytol 117:439–447